Third Rivian vehicle

Cosmacelf

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Read this: EV manufacturer Rivian plans rally-style performance car | Autocar

Rivian's strategy is coming into focus. They really want to be an adventure, off road brand, with no ambitions to deliver a variety of general purpose vehicles like Tesla is doing.

However, I predict their first two cars will have massive appeal. Tesla currently sells 100,000 Model S and X per year. Rivian could easily do the same with two cars that are in even more popular markets: pickup trucks and mid-sized SUVs. The only reason they won't sell even more than 100,000 combined vehicles is the price. It's just as well that their third car will be low volume since they'll have their hands full with the R1S and R1T.

From other reports, they are going to be following in Tesla's footsteps and initially building capacity for 20,000 vehicles per year (not clear whether that's 20,000 each for the R1S and R1T or combined). I think they will be sold out years in advance at that build rate until other manufacturers catch up (in 5 years :)).

Also interesting from the article is they are actively engaging other vehicle manufacturers to use their skateboard. Tesla did this early on too, but I think they realized that they had more than enough demand with their own vehicles as it was. The limiting factor for Tesla has been battery cell manufacturing (even today) and I suspect it will be too for Rivian. I suspect they won't get far OEMing their skateboard until their battery cell supplier ramps up production a lot - Rivian is going to have lots more demand than 20,000 vehicles/yr.

It's an interesting dynamic. When you run a manufacturing company, you run it conservatively since you are always worried about getting out of whack on supply/demand. Building too many products for the market is a one way ticket to bankruptcy. It isn't like software where you can ramp up and down quickly. Indeed, Tesla almost ran out of money this very year because they had hired and tooled for a certain high volume, but messed up their manufacturing line to not be able to deliver. So while it is obvious to us outsiders that Rivian should tool for 100,000 vehicles, the CEO is unlikely in the extreme to do that since it is too high a gamble. If I'm wrong about demand, I forget my prediction, if Rivian is wrong, they've just flushed 9 years of hard work down the toilet.
 

Rob Stark

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Nov 30, 2018
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Rivian is planning to stamp parts for other OEMs in 2019. They can learn to stamp parts and generate some income on top of it.

If they can sell limited number of skateboards to specialty manufacturers like RV makers, Commercial vehicle makers, small bus makers like for 12 people or so they can practice making skateboards and generate income while learning. So they don't drain their capital.

Also they plan on selling direct over the internet and showing cars off in Tesla type galleries.

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Washington, Texas, New York,New Jersey, and Pennsylvania are potentially big markets where they may run into trouble.
 

theredviper

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Dec 12, 2018
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My goodness, when will that antiquated system go away? I'm here in Canada and I don't recall any fuss around the dealer system vs. Tesla direct sales. I believe here it is under federal legislation, but there was never an issue as far as I can remember.
 

Randy

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You must not live in Ontario. Tesla had to sue the Ontario Gov to get the rebate for Tesla vehicles. The Ontario Gov denied rebates only to Tesla as they stated the rebates were for franchised dealers only. But I do agree, it is really hard to compare two differently constructed country's laws/regulations and consequences.
 

theredviper

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You must not live in Ontario. Tesla had to sue the Ontario Gov to get the rebate for Tesla vehicles. The Ontario Gov denied rebates only to Tesla as they stated the rebates were for franchised dealers only. But I do agree, it is really hard to compare two differently constructed country's laws/regulations and consequences.
I don't, but that was assinine rules put in by a new government that didn't know what they were doing (hence they lost in court), and was about the reabtes, not just the basic ability to sell the car.
 
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